GlobalHydroPressure

The overarching objective of GlobalHydroPressure is to provide global model-based support for assessing and quantifying the fundamental hydrological pressure in basins worldwide. A consistent and reliable estimation of this pressure is a prerequisite for assessment of vulnerability and resilience to the total, multiple environmental pressure, including both natural and human-driven components. As hydrological pressure is closely associated with extreme events (natural hazards) on different scales in space and time, a multi-scale perspective will be adopted. A key feature of the project is the development of hydrological Decision Support Indicators (DSIs), innovative indicators pertinent to the main hydrological pressures tailored for decision support with different time horizons. Further, technical infrastructure will be developed or updated for calculating and distributing these DSIs both on global and on regional/local level. In the process, we will develop existing hydrological models on global and local scales into innovative tools for supporting final-users’ decisions (apps, interactive pages, etc.). The global performance of the World-Wide HYPE (WWH) model will be enhanced by e.g. new forcing data (satellite-based, etc.) and improved calibration procedures, but special attention will be given to the location-specific applications where WWH performance will be compared to locally adapted models, e.g. MGB-IPH and HBV, and improved when necessary. Local cases span different climatic, areal and topographic characteristics so that WWH may be adapted to different characteristics and may be then used to support local vulnerability, resilience and risk assessment in ungauged regions of difficult access, as well as contribute with input to practical tools for adaptation and decision support. The applications covered in the cases include e.g. water resources management, hydropower production, flood risk assessment and agricultural production. An important aspect of GlobalHydroPressure is the multi-scale perspective, as different hydro-meteorological hazards operate on widely different scales in time and space. Examples of extremes include flash floods, with scales down to hours and single km2s, and droughts, with scales up to multi-years and continents. We will develop support and guidelines both for historical analysis of past extremes and for future prediction on various time horizons; medium-range forecasts (days/week ahead), seasonal forecasts (months/season ahead) and climate projections (decades/century ahead). A second important aspect is the close involvement of stakeholders and the intention to have a bottom-up approach, where modelling and assessment is driven by stakeholder needs in continuous collaboration. A group of Principal Stakeholders is included in the project, which will ensure that all results are practically applicable.

The key aspects of the project may be summarized as follows:

• We combine an existing global hydrological climate service, providing a consistent baseline, with local data and locally tailored models, for improved assessment of hydrological pressure.
• We explore recent historical events for improved vulnerability and climate change impact assessment as well as improved stakeholder communication.
• We use a multi-scale approach to obtain a better understanding as well as description of different pressures/risks/vulnerabilities as well as their associated uncertainties.
• We involve key local stakeholders to formulate tailored Decision Support Indicators (DSIs) on different future time horizons (days to centuries) and to identify multi-pressure aspects and requirements.
• We have a multi-disciplinary environment (hydrology, meteorology, climate science, bioeconomy, social science) with a good balance between fundamental/academic research and applied/operational applications.

WP1 Management: Project management 

WP2 Stakeholder interaction: Coordination of stakeholder involvement in the individual case studies (WP4) and promote cross-case knowledge transfer

WP3 Global development: Correction and bias adjustment of satellite precipitation data as input to WWH. Evaluation of WWH and provision of simulations to the case studies (WP4) 

WP4 Case studies and indicators: Case studies in six complementary basins worldwide, analysis of key historical events representing different hydrological pressures, indicator development and evaluation. 

WP5 Outreach and exploitation: Dissemination of project results and development of innovative tools for providing decision support to stakeholders

Expected impact:
GlobalHydroPressure aims at formulating, evaluating and refining innovative Decision Support Indicators (DSIs) for the most common
hydrological pressures as well as developing technical infrastructures for their distribution on both global and regional/local level. The
project is designed in response to Challenge 1 in the 2017 Joint Call, Multiple pressure effects on ecosystems and ecosystem services. The
project addresses both Sub-topic 1a, Assessment of multiple pressures… (through the case studies in WP4) and Sub-topic 1b, Tools and
approaches... (through the technical development in WP3-WP5). Importantly, all development will be based on in-depth assessment of
stakeholder requirements (WP2). The project has a strong and obvious transnational/international component as it is based on the
WorldWideHYPE (WWH) hydrological model, associated with an active and growing user community (http://hypeweb.smhi.se/). All
partners are expected to substantially benefit from collaboration within this R&D environment, conceivably opening up many opportunities
for new future initiatives. The long-term benefit of GlobalHydroPressure is secured both through the global portal, which will become
permanent, and the local forecasting models to be developed and maintained (WP4). As described in section 1.2, Europe has a strong
ambition to be in the front when it comes to climate services, and with GlobalHydroPressure we intend to contribute from a bottom-up and
stakeholder-oriented perspective, which is urgently needed today. The expected impacts range from an improved societal security through
improved DSIs for both early warning and long-term planning pertinent to different hydrological pressures and hazards, over better support
for water resources and environmental management, to new business opportunities both for climate service operators (section 2.4) and for
consultants or other private actors wishing to exploit the results for building further tailored services.
Key expected outputs:
•Improved understanding of stakeholder’s needs and expectations related to key hydrological pressures
•New validated hydrological Decision Support Indicators (DSIs) for the most common hydrological pressures
•An improved global climate service providing DSIs at a high resolution and different future time horizons
•Local tailored hydrological forecast systems and DSI providers with quantified performance/accuracy
•Prototypes of stakeholder DSI and forecast communication and presentation tools 
•Capacity building through cross-case knowledge transfer, increased public understanding and awareness 
•Several scientific publications, technical reports and scientific conference contributions